Trump and the Birthers

There's a PPP poll out that's gotten some attention out in the wild world of cable news (and some wacky news sites).

First, overall, 44 percent of Republicans in this survey believe Barack Obama was born outside the U.S. That's higher than usual. Over half (54 percent) think Obama is Muslim. That's high too. I've written extensively, and conducted actual research, on both topics. But what's fascinated some folks is the analysis of Donald Trump supporters. I even heard this reported today on Morning Joe, thankfully with some skepticism. Here it is:

• Sixty-one percent of Trump supporters believe Obama was born outside the U.S.
• Sixty-six percent of Trump supporters believe Obama is Muslim.

Wow. But let's do the math. Set aside the Dems, who aren't that interesting. The survey was of 572 Republican likely primary voters. So if Trump has 29 percent, that means an N here of about 166 respondents. That's a really small number to base a result on. Indeed, if you did into the crosstabs at the bottom of the link I provided above, you'll see stuff reported for candidates with only a handful of supporters. For example, 100 percent of Jim Gilmore supporters believe Obama is Muslim. All six of them, if my math is right.

I also worry, a little, about question order effects. If the questions were asked as presented (and they may have been randomized, it's hard to tell), then the questions about Obama followed a series of questions asking if you're a member of the Tea Party or are an evangelical Christian. Could these prime a different response to the Obama birther/religion questions? Perhaps. Which may explain the somewhat inflated numbers above, but those numbers may also simply reflect a more conservative voter who participates in primaries, versus general elections.

Thank God for Rick Perry

Republican presidential hopeful Gov. Rick Perry has come through for me -- raising subtle doubts about Barack Obama's birth certificate.  I here I was, afraid the birthers were gone. 

Why do I care?  First, it's just so much fun, this whole birther thing.  Second, I've done research on the birthers that is now sitting at an academic journal awaiting reviews.  Any publicity about birthers, from a strictly personal point of view, is good publicity.  Makes my research all the more relevant.

In other words, it's all about me me me.

Now if Donald Trump would only re-enter the race.  Or Donald Duck.  And that I'm-not-a-witch chick, too. 

We Can't Not Watch

It's easy to say, as in this survey, that the news media focused too much last week on the royal wedding and Obama's birth certificate fiasco.  Yep, easy to say.

But watch we did.

In the Pew survey, nearly two-thirds say there was too much royal wedding coverage.  In part this can be explained by the fact there indeed was goo much royal wedding coverage.  It can also be explained by the fact our own weddings got no such coverage.  And finally, it can be explained by the eerie similarities between the royal wedding and that seen on The Princess Bride.

And over half of those surveyed said the Obama birth certificate nonsense got too many pixels, too much time, and too much ink.  But again, could you not watch?

The news is like this.  We grow frustrated by too much coverage while being unable to stop watching or reading all the coverage.

Let's be fair, though.  The royal wedding was third in total news coverage, following the storms that raked the South and oil/gas prices.  Then came the problems in the Middle East.  Then Obama and the Birthers (good name for a pop band).  In other words, the complaints are more a matter of perception than reality.  Perception, though, always matters more. 

Sorry Birthers

The Obama administration released his "long form" certificate of live birth today.   Story here.

I have mixed feelings about this.  I'm just starting a study of "birthers" and don't want the issue to go away any time soon.

Has the Birther Movement Peaked?

Despite a New York Times poll that finds a quarter of adults, and nearly half of all Republicans, believe President Barack Obama was born somewhere other than the U.S., I think we're seeing signs that the candles on the birther movement cake may be burning out.  Yes, state legislators keep trying to keep the candles lit through various laws, but even Tea Party favorite U.S. Rep. Michelle Bachmann admitted, upon being shown Obama's certificate of live birth, that the issue appears to be "settled." 

Donald Trump may not have gotten the inter-party memo, but I sense those at the top of the GOP, who are not above feeding the crazies (Dems too, in their own special way), are starting to edge away from the Cliffs of Despair.

In other words, I argue that the movement has peaked.

You'd hope so, with 45 percent of GOPers believing Obama was born somewhere other than where all official and semi-official evidence points -- Hawaii.  Trump may have hijacked the issue for a while, but most folks assume this will play out when he ducks out of actually running for office.

A year ago, 20 percent of adults thought Obama was born elsewhere.  Earlier this month it was at 24 percent.  Now it's 25 percent.  Not coincidentally, confidence in the U.S. has reached a two-year low.  When things are bad, we latch on to easy answers.  For many, it's easy to suspect the worst of someone, even a president, we may not particularly like at the moment.  Policy reasons are hard, so we use something simpler and easier -- a heuristic, as social scientists would say -- and good ones are that Obama is secretly Muslim.  Or born elsewhere.  Or the Anti-Christ.  Or whatever.

As the theory of motivated reasoning suggests, we often believe what we want to believe.  Or as the article I linked to in the previous sentence says: "our quick-fire emotions can set us on a course of thinking that’s highly biased, especially on topics we care a great deal about."

And it's easier.  Faster.  And in many ways, satisfying because we have a bad guy to blame.

But let's face it.  The only reason the movement has been trending up is Trump and a handful of others playing this tune, over and over, to the joy and chagrin of journalists.  It's a fun story.  But it's the wrong story.

Obama, Birthers, and Donald Trump

The political chattering class is abuzz about Donald Trump's surprising strength among those seeking, or who may seek, the Republican presidential nomination.  Now I find Trump as entertaining as the next guy, and his surprise 17 percent showing, good enough for a tie at second place for the GOP nomination pool, is almost as much fun as him apparently sending investigators to Hawaii to see if Barack Obama was really born there.

Birthers, those who doubt Obama was born in the U.S., are equally entertaining.  But don't underestimate their numbers.  One recent poll found as many as 20 percent believe he was born somewhere other than the U.S., and 31 percent of Republicans think so.  In other words, one-in-five Americans are a bit kooky on this topic, and nearly one-third of Republicans are.  The Donald is on to something.  Not necessarily the truth, mind you, but a shameless play to his audience, those likely to participate in a Republican nomination.  I really see Trump surprising some folks.

By the way, the whole where was Obama born thing was settled long ago by that terrific web site devoted to debunking urban myths -- snopes.  Trump could have saved money by just clicking on the web site rather than "sending" investigators to Hawii to interview, I dunno, no one.  But he's got money to spare.  If he'd like to send me to Hawii to investigate then I'm willing to go on his dime too.

Yo Donald.  Call me.

From a theoretical perspective -- yeah, you knew I'd go there -- belief in the birther movement is reminiscent of those who believe Obama is Muslim. Basically these are people who want to believe the worst in a guy they politically disagree with.  No amount of correcting information will change this (I've blogged on this before, just search for it or motivated reasoning on my blog).  Even corrections will move the partisans further to the edge of sanity (far left, far right, you pick it).

Still, Donald.  Call me.

The Constitution and the Nutjobs

As the U.S. Constitution was read today in the House, during the part that says "no person, except a natural-born citizen, or a citizen of the United States" is eligible for the presidency, a woman yelled out that it didn't apply to President Barack Obama.  Yes, the wingnuts and nutjobs are out.  Story here.

Chronic Know-Nothings

From ages back, the idea of chronic know-nothings has re-emerged thanks to misperceptions that Barack Obama is Muslim (or wasn't born in the U.S., or perhaps isn't actually an Earthling at all).  This NYTimes opinion piece does a nice job of summing up the topic about how we're building a nation of know-nothings.

Of course this is a topic near and dear to my heart, given I published an academic piece earlier this year attempting to explain who were the folks who, during the 2008 election, continued to doubt Obama's religious affiliation despite all information to the contrary.  I love it when I'm far ahead of the curve.  Happens, oh, once in a lifetime.

Obama and the "Birthers"

Some myths are damnably persistent, including the one suggesting Barack Obama was not born in the U.S.  That's the belief of 1 of every 4 American adults, according to a new survey.  To be more precise, 11 percent believe he was "definitely" born elsewhere and 16 percent believe he "probably" was.

Scary factoid: 41 percent of Republicans doubt the president being born in the U.S., never mind all the evidence to the contrary.  But don't let the facts get in the way of a good negative misperception.  Still, here is a good objective collection of Obama myths, most debunked.

Sometimes, what people know is ... um ... not a lot.