Trump and the Birthers

There's a PPP poll out that's gotten some attention out in the wild world of cable news (and some wacky news sites).

First, overall, 44 percent of Republicans in this survey believe Barack Obama was born outside the U.S. That's higher than usual. Over half (54 percent) think Obama is Muslim. That's high too. I've written extensively, and conducted actual research, on both topics. But what's fascinated some folks is the analysis of Donald Trump supporters. I even heard this reported today on Morning Joe, thankfully with some skepticism. Here it is:

• Sixty-one percent of Trump supporters believe Obama was born outside the U.S.
• Sixty-six percent of Trump supporters believe Obama is Muslim.

Wow. But let's do the math. Set aside the Dems, who aren't that interesting. The survey was of 572 Republican likely primary voters. So if Trump has 29 percent, that means an N here of about 166 respondents. That's a really small number to base a result on. Indeed, if you did into the crosstabs at the bottom of the link I provided above, you'll see stuff reported for candidates with only a handful of supporters. For example, 100 percent of Jim Gilmore supporters believe Obama is Muslim. All six of them, if my math is right.

I also worry, a little, about question order effects. If the questions were asked as presented (and they may have been randomized, it's hard to tell), then the questions about Obama followed a series of questions asking if you're a member of the Tea Party or are an evangelical Christian. Could these prime a different response to the Obama birther/religion questions? Perhaps. Which may explain the somewhat inflated numbers above, but those numbers may also simply reflect a more conservative voter who participates in primaries, versus general elections.

Chronic Know-Nothings

From ages back, the idea of chronic know-nothings has re-emerged thanks to misperceptions that Barack Obama is Muslim (or wasn't born in the U.S., or perhaps isn't actually an Earthling at all).  This NYTimes opinion piece does a nice job of summing up the topic about how we're building a nation of know-nothings.

Of course this is a topic near and dear to my heart, given I published an academic piece earlier this year attempting to explain who were the folks who, during the 2008 election, continued to doubt Obama's religious affiliation despite all information to the contrary.  I love it when I'm far ahead of the curve.  Happens, oh, once in a lifetime.

Obama Apparently Still a MuslimExcept, of course, he's not

A new Pew survey shows that a core group of uninformed Americans believe President Obama is Muslim.

I've written at length on this topic.  An example blog post is here, I've also published research from a panel of folks during the 2008 campaign, work that appeared recently in the Journal of Media and Religion.  Hell, I've even been quoted in The New York Times about my research.  So yeah, I'm interested and somewhat knowledgeable on the topic.  See the graphic from Pew on the left.

Why is the misperception that Obama is Muslim apparently growing?  Andy Kohut of the Pew Center gave a clear explanation this morning on NPR.  In part, the "don't knows" continue to grow, perhaps because Obama does not make a big deal about his Christian beliefs, particularly compared to George W. Bush who did.  I'd also add that politics, wanting to believe "the worst" about a politician you already don't like, also play a part.  Yeah, GOPers are a lot more likely to think he's Muslim, so that suggests a political explanation.  My own research also found conservative Christians (who also happen to be Republicans) are a major factor here.

All in all, a depressing and interesting survey result.  I'd write more but I have class soon, but perhaps I'll do a follow-up posting later today.

Misperceptions and Partisanship

An excellent column in today's New York Times about misperceptions and how difficult it is to change people's minds, even when it's obvious they're wrong.  Here's a telling graph from the column:

Our results indicate that this sort of journalistic fact-checking often fails to reduce misperceptions among ideological or partisan voters. In some cases, we found that corrections can even make misperceptions worse. For example, in one experiment we found that the proportion of conservatives who believed that President George W. Bush’s tax cuts actually increased federal revenue grew from 36 percent to 67 percent when they were provided with evidence against this claim. People seem to argue so vehemently against the corrective information that they end up strengthening the misperception in their own minds.

A pdf of the actual research is here, if you'd like to read the set of experiments that explored this partisan insistence toward non-knowledge (for lack of a better term). 

I roam the same theoretical turf.  The Journal of Media and Religion will publish soon my study on who the people were who insisted at multiple times during the 2008 election that Obama was Muslim.  While the journal article isn't published yet, you can beat the rush and read about it here in my local daily or by the NYTimes here. 

The point is, partisanship drives not only selective attention, exposure, and retention of information, but counterarguing even a fact-check that corrects the misperception can lead to even more incorrect knowledge.  It's a fascinating area, sort of reverse political knowledge, and the ultimate lesson from my study -- and others -- seems to be that nothing journalists or fact-checking web sites can do will correct people's misperceptions, especially when they're wingnuts.

What People Know ... about Obama

I'm not sure I believe this poll, but here's one lede:

On the heels of health care, a new Harris poll reveals Republican attitudes about Obama: Two-thirds think he's a socialist, 57 percent a Muslim—and 24 percent say "he may be the Antichrist."

I can't find many methodological details of this poll, nor can I find it (yet) picked up by any serious news organizations.  According to the story linked above, 2,230 people participated in the Louis Harris survey conducted during the heat of the health care debate.  The full results are supposedly going to be released tomorrow (Wednesday).

The socialist thing, yeah, I kinda buy that number among Republicans.  The Muslim thing?  About 20 percent of Americans believe that nonsense (while, curiously, also criticizing him for belonging to that Chicago church with the kooky -- yet Christian -- pastor).  But a quarter of GOPers think he's the Antichrist?  Based on what? Everyone knows the Antichrist's name is Damien and he has Gregory Peck as a father.

If ever a nation needs to take a deep breath, we are the one . . . and now is the time.

Obama is Still Muslim

Some urban myths refuse to die. A new Pew Center report confirms that the persistent rumor that Barack Obama is really Muslim, it's still out there, alive and well. Twelve percent believed him to be Muslim in October 2008, about 11 percent still think so. Among Republicans, 17 percent thought so in October and it's unchanged -- 17 percent in March 2009.

What's up with these people?

First, there's nothing wrong with being Muslim. It's like the old Seinfeld skit where a girl thinks Jerry and George are gay. We're not! they proclaim. "Not that there's anything wrong with that."

Who clings to this misperception, and why? Oh my, this gets into some research I recently submitted to a journal, so I'm going to skate around this a bit. Lemme just say that based on a panel study from September to October, the folks who clung to this myth tended to be Republicans and Christian conservatives. Those who knew better than believe him to be Muslim were black, or better educated, or more politically interested. Watching or reading the news did little to moderate this misperception, which goes to show you the limits of the news media in correcting a misperception that fits all your predispositions.

It's messy stuff, but the Pew results support this as well. Among evangelicals, 19 percent believed Obama to be Muslim. That's higher than any subgroup, and damned telling.

Questions about a candidate's (or politician's religion) is not something we often ask. Joe Lieberman being a Jew was a major story in 2000. Many people misidentified George W. Bush's religious affiliation (he's Methodist, not Baptist). Being religious makes you a little better at correctly identifying a candidate's religious affiliation, but not a lot, in part because religiosity is mostly unrelated to political knowledge or even negative.

Christian conservatives want to believe Obama is something other than Christian. Along comes this urban myth, and there ya go -- misperception.

Religion, Take Three

The fine folks at Fox asked the following survey question:

Some people believe Barack Obama, despite his professed Christianity, is secretly a Muslim. Others say that is just a rumor and Obama really is a Christian as he says, and point out he’s attended a Christian church for years. What do you believe -- is Obama a Muslim or a Christian? Muslim Christian (Other) (Don’t know)

Now this, conducted July 22-23, comes dangerously to being a push poll. It suggests something more than it asks something. By the way, among Republican respondents, 20% say he's a closet Muslim (5% Dems, 7% Indies).

And so it goes.

What we don't have are crosstabulations of "he's a Muslim" with factors other than political party identification. Is it just the know-nothings (who can be found in both parties) who think he's a Muslim, or informed folks truly skeptical of Obama's shifting sands on the issues? Are they hardcore McCain people? And just how strongly do they identify with the GOP or Democratic Party? That's unclear in the results, because a strong partisan acts and believes in very different ways than a "soft" partisan.

The pdf of the survey is here for those curious enough to read the, often mundane, results. The Obama/Muslim question is #27 and is followed by one about McCain being a prisoner of war but doesn't suggest any "negative" aspects in that question. Interesting in and of itself. And telling.

What Religion, Part II

Just stumbled across an Associated Press-Yahoo poll that asks more or less the same religion question I blogged about below. Respondents were asked, what's the religion of various candidates?

Hillary Clinton: 33% have her as Protestant, 8% as Catholic, 2% as "some other," 3% say "none," and just over half don't have a clue.

Barack Obama: 27% have him as Protestant, 2% identify him as Catholic, 1% as Mormon (that's fascinating), 15% as Muslim, 8% as "some other religion," 1% as no religion and the rest, nearly half, don't know.

So one poll has 12% saying Obama is a Muslim, the other has 15%. More or less in the margin of error, suggesting (1) people want to believe he's Muslim for partisan reasons, or (2) his name confuses them and they offer Muslim as a likely response, or (3) they don't attend to the news, or (4) they're just plain suspicious of this guy who came, more or less, out of nowhere to capture the Democratic nomination, or (5) they're just plain dumb.

In the story, which doesn't offer a lot of detail, there's an interesting intereview with a respondent:

Randi Estes, a Democrat from Ada, Okla., said she prefers Clinton but feels Obama is likely to win the nomination. "He's gotten very strong media coverage, and Bill Clinton's not helping her a bit," said Estes, 36, who has four children under the age of 6.

Speaking of Obama, she said, "I have a sense he's a Muslim."

It's that sense I find fascinating, and I suspect the Obama people may find troubling. But they can't find it too troubling, because that suggests there's something wrong with being Muslim (which there isn't). It's an interesting problem. As I like to say to my department chair when he wants to discuss some problem: "Good luck with that."