Obama Bump II

I wrote a day or so ago about the Obama poll bump after the Osama bin Laden takedown.  That one was based on a new Pew poll and my big point was the lack of a GOP bump for Obama (it all seemed to come from Dems and Independents).  Well, today the NYTimes/CBS poll shows a bump across the political board.

Or, as the Times puts it:

The glow of national pride seemed to rise above partisan politics, as support for the president rose significantly among both Republicans and independents. In all, 57 percent said they now approved of the president’s job performance, up from 46 percent last month. 

Among GOPers in the Pew poll, 16 percent "approved" of Obama both before and after the death of bin Laden.  The NYTimes poll has it differently:

The increase in Mr. Obama’s ratings came largely from Republicans and independents. Among independents, his approval rating increased 11 points from last month, to 52 percent, while among Republicans it rose 15 points, to 24 percent. 

It may be that the NYT/CBS poll is a bit later, so people have absorbed the death of bin Laden and thus we're seeing more of an "approval" effect.  It's a reasonable hypothesis.

An Obama Bump

President Obama got a public opinion bump -- hardly surprising -- after the killing of Osama bin Laden, according to a new Pew poll.  His "approval" numbers went from 47 percent in April to 56 percent on May 2.  Republicans were unchanged.  The "approval" jump came from Dems and, to a greater extent, self-described Independents.  In other words, no matter what Obama does, the GOPers aren't really going to change their mind.

"Disapprovals" did inch down from Republicans (81 to 79 percent), but that's well within the margin of error.

All age groups moved up in "approval" of Obama.  He got his biggest bump from non-whites, at least compared to the bump from whites.

In terms of what people know, or where they heard what they know, it's interesting to note that young people heard about the bin Laden news from social media significantly more than other age groups.  Not surprising, mind you, but interesting.

Obama's Favorability -- Slip Sliding Away

Obama's favorability is slip sliding away, at least according to recent Pew Center numbers.  The neat thing about this page is you can click here to get any number of socio-demographic breakdowns -- in annoying pdf format -- but why bother?  He's dropped in just about every category or way to break people up (sex, region in U.S., income level, race, political persuasion, etc.).  Call it a universal slide, to make a bad health care pun.  You can get broader presidential job approval numbers here, which gives you a sense of their shift over time.

Labor Day Slide

When there is a relatively new president, Labor Day becomes something of a touchstone in how the job is going.  As the graph to the right shows, Obama is doing lousy compared to some,  but better than others.  Graph from this NYTimes story.

Ford?  Easily explained by Watergate and the pardoning of Nixon, so let's set that one aside.  Clinton's slide?  Well, it's before a stained blue dress, so I'm guessing it was the gays in the military thing -- but that's just a guess without taking the time to look it up.

Does this slide mean much?  Not really.  Clinton was easily re-elected.  Carter had no real change and he was defeated.  But in terms of what people think, the Obama folks have to worry about momentum and the perception in the public that he's failed to follow through with his promises.  The health care debate is weighing down his presidential approval ratings, but that's not going to go away.  The talk radio guys slam him every day but relatively few people (20 or so million, already Obama haters) pay attention.

Public perception is fickle.  Right now, if I had to guess on what people know about the presidency of Barack Obama, it's that he's not doing as well as they'd hoped.  Maybe their expectations were too high after Bush.

People Know -- That They're Confused

A new CBS News poll finds that two-thirds of Americans are confused about the whole health care debate.  A pdf of the entire poll is here.

No doubt the screaming in town halls, the wailing of talk radio hosts, and the frothing by Fox News guys has generated some of the confusion -- as has the inability of the Obama Administration or Congress to explain this in a clear, coherent manner.  Still, more people (49 percent) think the town hall protesters do not reflect the views of most Americans.  Forty-one percent think they do.  The breakdown falls along unsurprising partisan lines, there are just more people identifying themselves as Dems today than GOPers. 

And folks kinda blame Obama.  Three out of five Americans think he's not done a good job explaining all health care reform.  His overall approval ratings have also dropped.  A lot.  He's gone from a high of 77 to 55 in approval, according to this site.  He's also as low as 51 percent, according to the same site, different page.

Obama's Slide

It had to happen, even to Barack Obama. The presidential honeymoon is gone and we're starting to see the typical slide in popularity by a new, sitting president. His "approve" numbers have dropped 9 percentage points since February, according to Pew Center report. A CNN survey had him at 78 percent favorability in January. Now he's at 64 percent. Still not bad, but a drop is a drop in political utility, especially when you're also trying to reform health care.

No, I'm not gonna discuss the health care town hall mess. It's all over cable. Go there. But it does fit into Obama's slide in positive numbers, that and the pounding he's taking at Fox or by the radio talkmeisters who have fueled most of the townhall people.

To be fair, George W. Bush was in the low-to-mid 60s early in his presidency through this same period, about August, so he outperforms Obama. He drops a little by Fall, but of course 9/11 changed the math and he shot up to a high of 87 percent "favorable" in late 2001. Comparisons unravel in a hurry.

One Word

What's the one word you'd use to describe Barack Obama?

The fine folks at Pew asked just this. Indeed, they give you three data points of this question (Sept. '08, February '09, and April '09). It makes for a fascinating peek into the public mind, this report. Scroll down a bit and you'll find find a table for "Obama in a Word."

The top word in September '08? Inexperienced. After that came Change, Intelligent, and Young. Of the 19 words generated, four are obviously negatives, the rest positives (Liberal could go either way, I suppose). In very last place: Socialist. We'll return to that in a moment.

By February '09 the top words are Intelligent, Change, and Honest. Only two are negatives, BUT Socialist has moved up the charts with a bullet, into a tie for #13!

In April '09 the top three are: Intelligent, Good, and Socialist. Interestingly, Liberal has moved into #4 in April after being near the bottom in February. Fascinating. Arrogant makes its first appearance in April, but the overall negatives are not so much changed.

What do I make of all this, especially given Obama's overall good favorability ratings? Clearly Limbaugh and Hannity and the other TV/radio commentators are having an impact on the public mind, cementing for at least some people out there what people know about Obama. These guys hammer the term Socialist again and again (never mind that real European style socialists look at this and kinda laugh, or consider misuse of copyright). Clearly it's working, at least for some folks. I'd have to download the data and dig much deeper to understand what kind of folks are using which labels -- and I might do just that this summer just for the hell of it.

It also suggests the partisan hammering may also be creating an early divide in the public mind about Obama, separating us yet again in the tired Red State/Blue State, you're-for-us-or-you're-against-us, thing. Limbaugh more or less said this the other day, that it's "us or them."

If you want to get theoretical on this and really understand the consequences of labeling, I recommend reading the literature on priming and chronically accessible constructs, found largely in the work on social and political cognition. I might touch on it this weekend if I have time and take Socialist to its likely consequences. I love getting all PhDweeb on this stuff.

Of Limbaugh and Hannity and Obama

The Beck-Hannity-Limbaugh-Etc. group have been pounding Obama for a few weeks now. If they're not crying (Beck) they're calling Obama socialist (Hannity) or they're simply suggesting it may be the end of the world (Beck again, cleverly made fun of by Colbert here and then here, watch them in order. Hilarious).

That's fine and good. Let 'em talk, it's all part of the joy of American democracy that anyone with an asshole and an opinion can use both, though hopefully in public only the latter. But you'd think these guys would be having some kind of effect. Nope. Not yet. At least not in mainstream America.

The traditional president favorability ratings show a slight uptick in Obama's numbers. Latest, 69 percent Favorable, up from 68 (but within the margin of error, for the methodologically minded among you). Obama's high is 77 percent, back at inauguration. That's a ceiling effect and the prez rarely climbs back to that point except in dire, extraordinary times like a 9/11.

Given the economy, given two wars, given the nutjob in North Korea and the vehemence of the political right, you'd think these numbers would edge down more. I would've predicted low 60s, maybe even 50s.

Even Obama's "unfavorable" numbers have inched down, opposite of what you might expect given the ideological and partisan pounding he's taking. Post tea party numbers should drive Obama's favorability down, if there's any traction in a largely symbolic and somewhat under performing pr event. Maybe the traction will take a week or two to be seen, so we'll check again. But what people know right now seems to be a generally favorable impression of Obama, even in these ugly economic times. Remarkable.