- ABC-Washington Post
- CBS-New York Times
- CNN-Opinion Research Corporation
- Fox News
- NBC-Wall Street Journal
Ron Faucheux reports in his daily email blast on polls: "Note in the poll that Gary Johnson, at 11%, is getting a little closer to the 15% debate threshold." But this is a report on the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll, which is different methodologically from the NBC-'Wall Street Journal poll (if I'm wrong on this, let me know). So I don't know it means a lot unless, being new it signals some trend for Johnson.
If Johnson can get solidly within the margin of error of the magic 15 percent mark the commission gives him a seat on the stage. A recent ABC/WaPo national poll, one of those included above, had him at 8 percent and a 4 percent margin of error, meaning he'd miss it on that single poll. If I have time I'll compute his running average on the five polls above with a margin of error, but figure he needs to hit around 12 percent as an average to make the MOE argument.