See the scatterplot below. Yeah, that's Trump all alone in the top right corner. If we drew a regression line here, it'd be running up from 0,0 to Trumpland, a nice linear fit. As I tell my students over and over, however, correlation is not causality. You cannot argue lots of Trump followers equals poll popularity, nor the other way around.
Raw data is below.
| Poll | ||
| Bush | 8.3 | 326,000 |
| Carson | 17.3 | 705,000 |
| Christie | 2.6 | 55,600 |
| Cruz | 6.1 | 519,000 |
| Fiorina | 11 | 581,000 |
| Graham | 0.3 | 27,800 |
| Huckabee | 2.8 | 411,000 |
| Jindal | 0.5 | 20,900 |
| Kasich | 3.1 | 111,000 |
| Pataki | 0.3 | 54,600 |
| Paul | 2.4 | 693,000 |
| Rubio | 9.5 | 888,000 |
| Santorum | 0.4 | 245,000 |
| Trump | 22.8 | 4,036,000 |
1 comment:
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