Thursday, September 3, 2015

New Georgia Prez Poll

A new poll puts Trump ahead in Georgia. The leaders are:
  1. Trump (34%)
  2. Carson (25%)
  3. Bush (11%)
  4. Cruz (6%)
  5. Huckabee (5%)
  6. Fiorina (5%)
  7. Kasich (3%)
  8. Christie (2%)
  9. Rubio (2%)
  10. and all the rest of them, I'm tired of typing. Let's just say "undecided" is leading six candidates.
The nerd stuff -- a poll of 664 "likely" GOP primary voters, margin of error 3.8 percent. Data weighted to reflect the previous primary demographics like age and race (you can do this in Georgia as the data are collected by the state).

You can get more details here. Ya want some methodological fun? Look at that pdf and the breakdown by age and whether reached by landline (remember those?) and mobile. Of those reached by that thing called landline, 1.3 percent were between the ages of 18-29. That increases, of course, as age grouping increases. So among 30-34 years, it's 13.1 percent, among 45-64, it's 49.7 percent, and among 65 years old and up, they make up 35.9 percent of the landline sample. In other words, nearly 8 out of 10 landline respondents were over the age of 45.

In the mobile sample, 0 percent are ages 65 and up. Think about that, especially for surveys that rely so heavily on landlines (as this and others often do, as they used landlines first).

Indeed, it's hard to tell just how many surveys were landline versus mobile. That matters. Landline robo-polls (and yeah, it doesn't say so, but this is a robo-poll) skew older, more conservative, and come with problems that are difficult to offset through statistical weighting. That said, there are no surprises in the numbers above. Fiorina has the biggest change since this firm's last poll, again not a surprise.

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