Sunday, September 28, 2008

The Polls and the Debate

Two polls report more people saw Barack Obama as the winner in last Friday night's presidential debate. One poll was of general voters, another of undecided voters. What we sometimes see is a self-fulfilling prophecy here. One candidate is anointed the winner and that has a small, yet significant, positive effect on overall poll results.

If Sarah Palin crashes and burns this week, the Republican ticket will be in serious trouble.

Let the spin begin. GOPers will be downplaying expectations. I'm not sure they can get quite that low in the downplayed expectations game, because no one really expects her to do well. Speak in complete sentences and she comes out ahead. Joe Biden is in a tough spot. No one expects her to do well, and he's got to avoid piling on.

If Palin crashes, the combination may be enough to solidify in enough people's minds that the election is over. That's an interesting effect, because sometimes that works against a ticket or candidate. The base takes a break, doesn't show up on election day.

If people know it's over, then that can make all the difference, and not the way they intended. Gonna be an interesting week.

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