Threats

In what people know, one of those is how we perceive threat. News of course can increase the perception of threat or risk, hence the recent flubbed missile launch by North Korea. Back in 2006, eight-out-of-ten Americans saw North Korea as either an immediate or long-term threat to the U.S. About the same number see it that way in a recent survey.

All this despite North Korea's inability to feed its own people or get a missile's third stage to work properly. All this after a transparent pr campaign to convince it's own people that music is being piped from magical floating satellites in space, despite the fact North Korea can't actually seem to get a missile into space.

We're terrible at estimating risk, or threat. News stories create a top-of-the-head effect and we see the disease of the week or threat of the week as more likely to occur than it statistically is. Yeah, North Korea is nuts and is a threat, but I wonder now whether stories about the flubbed missile launch will reduce this perception. And whether that's a good idea.

Knowing . . . They're Out to Get You

Interesting British study on just how paranoid people can be. You can can versions of the story scattered across the Net. Here's one version, or another. Or another. Just in case any of the links die. One interesting number: 21 percent of Brits think at some time people were acting against them.

Here's a scary bit:

Surveys of several thousands of people in Britain, the United States and elsewhere have found that rates of paranoia are slowly rising, although researchers' estimates of how many of us have paranoid thoughts varies widely, from 5 percent to 50 percent.

You have to wonder if the Brit study is less likely to be replicated in the U.S., particularly given the amount of people using the tube in London. I wonder what those other people are thinking and doing too when I'm waiting or riding on the tube.

As one guy says, maybe it's not such a bad thing:

"In a world full of threat, it may be kind of beneficial for people to be on guard. It's good to be looking around and see who's following you and what's happening," Combs said. "Not everybody is trying to get you, but some people may be."

Essentially people are suspicious, and given the times who can blame them? If there is a rise in paranoia that's easily explained given 9/11, given the attack on the London tube and buses, given the times in general. So in this case, what people know is that they know, or think they know, someone is out there watching them.