Monday, September 18, 2017

Strange Alabama. Tell me Moore

As political junkies know, there's a fascinating U.S. Senate race going on next door in Alabama between Roy "Ten Commandments Everywhere" Moore and Luther "Trump Likes Me Best" Moore. The election itself is Sept. 26, but there's been a spate of polls showing either Moore winning big or the race a statistical tie. No polls seem to show Strange ahead. This bodes well for Moore and, of course, poorly for Strange.

A poll out today suggests the race is tightening. Here's the opening grafs. Keep in mind that tightening in this case still has Moore thumping Strange.
U.S. Sen. Luther Strange has made significant cuts into Roy Moore's lead in a Republican primary runoff poll but still has a lot of ground to make up over the next eight days. 
In a poll released Monday by Louisiana-based JMC Analytics and Polling, Alabama's former chief justice holds an eight-point lead over Strange. 
The same polling firm last month had Moore with a 19-point lead.
It's helpful when the same firm, using the same method, shows change. It's more difficult to compare across polls, especially when they use very different sampling or weighting methods, and that assumes they report any of these details at all.

A few days earlier a different poll essentially said it's too close to call. Keep in mind this particular poll has ties to those supporting Strange, but I'm certain it's a mere coincidence they call it a tie.

A summary of polls by Real Clear Politics paints a pretty picture for Moore.

President Donald Trump and the GOP establishment have all endorsed Strange, as Moore infamous for his on-again, off-again career on the state supreme court. In this case, Trump's endorsement doesn't seem to matter.

Maybe it will tighten some before the election. That's what usually happens in most races as undecideds, well, decide. Those may break more for Strange but it's hard to imagine enough of them remain out there to change the outcome.

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