In the case of Brexit -- this didn't work.
As these SurveyMonkey data collected after the historic vote demonstrate, more people expected Remain to win. Here's the basic breakdown. I don't have access to the "don't knows" or refusals or such, so percentages reflect the prediction based on respondents who answered this question.
- Remain win by a lot (434, or 11.7%)
- Remain win by a little (2,659, or 71.7%)
- Leave win by a little (476, or 12.8%)
- Leave win by a lot (138, or 3.7%)
The percentages above do not equal 100 due to rounding.
OK, that's all well and good. Brits are lousy prognosticators. Turns out, 80 percent of those who said they voted to Leave also expected Leave to win. But among those who voted to Remain, only 55 percent thought their side would win.