Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Trump Doubt

A fresh CNN/ORC poll is out and there's no real change in who people predict will win the 2016 U.S. presidential election. The poll asked this question in a poll in the field March 17-20 and again a few days ago (June 16-19). "Regardless of who you support," it asks, "and trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think will win the election in November if these are the candidates on the ballot -- Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?"

June Poll
March Poll

So no difference on expectations on Clinton, but a drop for predictions of a Trump victory (4 percentage points). This could be the tough campaign stretch Trump suffered, shaking not only some of his support but also predictions he can eventually pull it off. Call this Trump Doubt.

As I wrote yesterday in more detail about the March poll, you can break these down further. The new poll also includes, deep down, crosstabs on this question by gender, political party, age, etc. Here's what jumps out at me in comparing the two polls via their crosstabs:

Among Trump supporters, the percentage who predicted he would win dropped from 88 percent in March to 78 percent in June. That's startling. 

It's not unusual for people to believe their own candidate will win. Three-fourths of Mitt Romney supporters believed so in 2012. But to see a 10 percentage point drop in belief he will win, that says more in some ways than merely asking people their preference.

June Poll
March Poll

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