Monday, August 10, 2015

New Trump Poll

So this poll came out and, like others, shows Trump holding onto his lead after the GOP presidential circus debate.

Here's the lede:
Donald Trump continued to defy the laws of political gravity on Monday as a Reuters/Ipsos poll found the real estate mogul holding onto a wide lead among Republicans in the U.S. presidential race despite an acerbic debate and a feud with a female television anchor that have bolstered charges of sexism.
OK, wow. Trump is Teflon.  He has, according to this poll, 24 percent. In second is Jeb Bush, at 12 percent.

This is a Reuters/Ipsos poll and I have to point out something at the very bottom. Here it is:
The online poll of 278 self-identified Republicans has a credibility interval of 6.7 percentage points.
Two things should jump out at you, the educated reader of polls. First, "online poll." Second, only 278 people participated, meaning a margin of error (credibility interval? what the hell is that?) of almost 7 percentage points. That 7 percentage points means Trump's numbers could be as low as 17 percent, and Bush's could be as high as 19 percent. In other words, it's a statistical tie. I should point out that given other recent polls, Trump's lead is real, but the story should point out the statistical tie.

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