Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Polls are everywhere. And it's hard to tell a good survey from a bad survey. And what's worse, it's hard to sometimes tell how a poll was conducted. The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) has a transparency initiative designed to help (full disclosure -- I'm a member of AAPOR, though I need to pay my dues soon). It remains to be seen just how many pollsters or those who do survey work actually sign on. There are only 10 charter members so far. Some sites and aggregators, like 538, often give points to pollsters that are transparent or belong to initiatives like this, at least in their final grading scheme.
My guess? Lots of polling firms will not join because they don't want to reveal exactly how they do their surveys. We'll see.