Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Who's Ahead in Georgia?

A new poll is out on the Georgia gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races. According to the PPP robo-poll of "likely" voters:
  • Republican David Perdue leads Democrat Michelle Nunn, 45 percent to 43 percent (potential runoff as the Libertarian candidate is pulling in 5 percent, according to the poll)
  •  Republican incumbent Gov. Nathan Deal leads Democratic challenger Jason Carter, 46 percent to 41 percent.
Again, this is a robo-poll, so be skeptical, especially as PPP got only a B- for its efforts from statistical guru Nate Silver. According to the methodology (all AP Style errors are theirs, not mine):
PPP surveyed 895 likely voters from October 2nd to 5th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.3%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones. 
Silver's lousy grades for PPP come in part from being off in its numbers but also for a lack of transparency in its methodology and, especially, not calling cell phones. It's hard to say whether the data were weighted in any way.

No matter what you think of the PPP poll, there's one that's much much much worse.

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