Monday, October 27, 2014

Georgia Senate Race

How close is the U.S. Senate race between Democrat Michelle Nunn and Republican David Perdue? Check out HuffPo's polling summary in the last few days just on this race.

I've analyzed these recent polls already, but what sticks out for me is how well Swafford does in the AJC poll (6 percent) versus the CBS/NYT/YouGove poll (1 percent).  The two polls agree with a slight (within the margin of error) lead for Perdue, The CNN poll has Swafford with 5 percent of the vote and a Nunn lead (again, within margin of error), so it's hard to say what's going on here other than it's going to be a close race and will probably result in a runoff -- in which Perdue (I'm thinking) will have an advantage.

The highest Perdue has ever been in all Georgia polls is 50 percent (Insider/Advantage on 9/10-11) and the highest Nunn has ever been is 47 percent (multiple times).

Luckily the election will be soon. The only reason we have elections, after all, is to find out which poll was right.

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