A "futurist" is
predicting that print newspapers in the U.S. will disappear within seven years. He says by 2019, they'll be gone in Britain and Iceland, and a year later, Canada and Norway. A few years later, some other places.
Why do I doubt his predictions?
- Have you ever known a "futurist" to be right?
- His name, Ross Dawson, sounds like a TV actor.
- He has a timeline, always a sign of being wrong.
- He's based in Sydney and San Francisco. Can't make up his mind.
- He posted this on Halloween.
But if nothing else, a nice near number like "seven years" is sure to up his exposure, draw hits to his web page, and keep him going as a "futurist." I agree print is in trouble, and for a lot of reasons so is our political learning as print is the more demanding form of news, but I don't see paper going away quite that soon. I suppose that makes me the opposite of a "futurist." A
historicist?
Below, his timeline. Go to his site for more details, linked above. Click on the image to see a better version.
1 comment:
The point of course is, Dawson has no details on his method or data.
See for alternative scenario's:
http://www.newspaperinnovation.com/index.php/2010/11/02/the-newspaper-extinction-timeline-sucks/
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