Monday, November 1, 2010

Newspapers in U.S. -- Gone in 7 Years?

A "futurist" is predicting that print newspapers in the U.S. will disappear within seven years.  He says by 2019, they'll be gone in Britain and Iceland, and a year later, Canada and Norway.  A few years later, some other places.

Why do I doubt his predictions?
  1. Have you ever known a "futurist" to be right?
  2. His name, Ross Dawson, sounds like a TV actor.
  3. He has a timeline, always a sign of being wrong.
  4. He's based in Sydney and San Francisco.  Can't make up his mind.
  5. He posted this on Halloween.  
But if nothing else, a nice near number like "seven years" is sure to up his exposure, draw hits to his web page, and keep him going as a "futurist."  I agree print is in trouble, and for a lot of reasons so is our political learning as print is the more demanding form of news, but I don't see paper going away quite that soon.  I suppose that makes me the opposite of a "futurist."  A historicist?

Below, his timeline.  Go to his site for more details, linked above.  Click on the image to see a better version.

1 comment:

Piet said...

The point of course is, Dawson has no details on his method or data.

See for alternative scenario's:
http://www.newspaperinnovation.com/index.php/2010/11/02/the-newspaper-extinction-timeline-sucks/