Knowing False Things

Thanks to colleague Karen Russell for pointing this list of eight false things the public "knows" prior to the election.  It is, of course, a list designed to reinforce the job the Obama Administration has done over the past two years, just before the GOP eats the Dem's lunch.

If you did deep enough in the comments you'll find challenges to some, but not all, of Dave Johnson's points. But even if half of his list are "false" things people believe about the economy and such are correct, that says a lot about what people perceive as true versus what is actually true.

Ironically, in about two hours I'm giving a lecture to 25 or so Honors students about more or less the same topic -- how being uninformed is conceptually, theoretically, and pragmatically different than being misinformed.  I'll be using the myth that Obama is Muslim as my anchor.  Unfortunately I have a really sore throat, so I'm gonna swallow several Tylenol beforehand.  And if that doesn't work, I'll use interpretative dance instead.

Perceived and Actual Knowledge

There's what people know, and what people think they know.  In this piece, Nicole Skibola in a Forbes blog notes:

In his book The Wisdom of Crowds, James Surowiecki discusses how disconnects between status and knowledge often lead to inefficient outcomes in decision-making processes. Groups, and obviously business organizations, tend to give deference to individuals with perceived or actual status, often with little to no correlation with actual knowledge.  As the group coalesces around one perceived knowledge holder, minorities are less likely to share their own perspectives, despite the fact that minority opinions make groups wiser as a whole.

Think of it as a micro version of the spiral of silence in which minority viewpoints tend to spiral into, yes, silence, because the majority speaks up so much, and so loudly, and our fear of isolation is such that we don't dare speak out.

I should point out that, despite what the book suggests, actual and perceived knowledge are typically correlated with one another.  Not perfectly, mind you, but there is a tendency for those who know something to also believe they know something.  I note the imperfection of the relationship because I've been reading a study on misinformation and how confident people are in their completely irrational beliefs, such as whether Barack Obama is Muslim.  The more misinformed, some studies suggest, the more confident people are in that misinformed belief.  In other words, it's damn hard to shake someone loose from crazy beliefs, even with facts.

Being uninformed, and being misinformed, are two conceptually distinct matters.  More on this another time.

Paul is Dead

Yes, it's all over the news, but I can't help but also note the passing of the incredible Paul, the octopus that called seven World Cup games correctly, the ones involving Germany, and then correctly predicted Spain's victory over Netherlands.

Paul's remains will be cremated.

Biologists are uncertain as to whether cephalopods are particularly adept as futbol prognosticators or whether Paul tapped into some inner knowledge (this is a blog about knowledge, ya know, so I had to work that in).  As we know from our social science reading, people tend to engage in wishful thinking when it comes to predicting the winner of a sporting event -- that is, predicting their favored team will.  Paul, of Germany, picked against Germany ... and correctly so it turned out.  Take this as evidence that sea life is unaffected by wishful thinking.  I see a psychology article on the way.

And now we must search for another animal before the next World Cup.  Will we go with another octopus?  Maybe move up the evolutionary chain to a mammal (certain college students excepted)?  Or downshift to the insect world?

Good news is, we have until 2014.  Or maybe that's bad news, because I'm ready for some more World Cup action.

Harry Truman Lives

Give Em Hell Harry still lives, at least in the mind of one college kid who, when asked to name the Senate Majority Leader and prompted with "Harry," came up with Truman.

Could be worse.  He coulda said Harry Potter.  Watch the video and enjoy.  Or sob.

Given the Right PlatformPeople will Pay for News

According to a new study (or here), people with an iPad are willing to pay for apps, and they will use the device to access magazines and news.  Forty-four percent used the iPad to read the news and 25 percent used it to read a magazine.

If we do enough fuzzy math, we can suppose a sizable chunk of them will combine the two and pay for news.

Sixty-three percent of users say they've paid for and downloaded an app.  A third have never done so.  The leading apps are no surprise: games, books, music.  But the findings for "news & headlines" is heartening.

Climate ChangeHalf of Americans get an F

I missed this survey released by some Yale folks last week that examines what people know (or think they know) about climate change.

Half of Americans get an F.  Only 8 percent nail it with an A or B grade. Sounds like my writing class.
 
Check out the site and the accompanying pdf with more details.  Given I have to be in class soon, let me just shamelessly lift a section and hope you'll take the time to read the rest.  Or, if time allows, I'll post more.

Overall, we found that 63 percent of Americans believe that global warming is happening, but many do not understand why. In this assessment, only 8 percent of Americans have knowledge equivalent to an A or B, 40 percent would receive a C or D, and 52 percent would get an F. The study also found important gaps in knowledge and common misconceptions about climate change and the earth system. These misconceptions lead some people to doubt that global warming is happening or that human activities are a major contributor, to misunderstand the causes and therefore the solutions, and to be unaware of the risks. Thus many Americans lack some of the knowledge needed for informed decision-making in a democratic society. For example, only: 

• 57% know that the greenhouse effect refers to gases in the atmosphere that trap heat;
• 50% of Americans understand that global warming is caused mostly by human activities;
• 45% understand that carbon dioxide traps heat from the Earth’s surface;
• 25% have ever heard of coral bleaching or ocean acidification.

How to Become an Informed Voter

I apologize in advance for this video's bad advertising, bad music, and I really apologize for the fact it has John Stossel as host.  But it's about voting, it's about being an informed voter, thus I feel slightly obligated to provide it for your viewing (dis)pleasure.

See below.